June_AI Chip Topics|AI Training Chip Trend Analysis for One's Cloud(Up)
Recently Daniel Kokotajlo and other authors published an AI development roadmap forecast report, AI 2027, which makes some bold situational projections for AI development in the coming years. Kokotajlo, a former researcher on OpenAI's Governance and Security team, predicted in 2021 that "Chain Thinking (CoT) will become a must-have capability for large-scale models, export controls on AI chips will be upgraded, and million-dollar training costs will be incurred by 2024." All of these predictions were later hit, and he was named by Time100 and Lawfare as one of the few people who managed to hit the AI roadmap in the long-term. He was also named by Time100 and Lawfare as "one of the few people who have managed to stay on the AI path for a long time. When he left OpenAI, he gave up millions of dollars in stock just to publicly warn about the ethical and governance risks of AI. This kind of dramatic reaction of not loving the real gold but loving the truth, together with the previous accurate AI development path prediction, also added a lot of anticipation and readability to the AI 2027 published by them this time. In the article, the match between two fictitious companies "OpenBrain (US) vs. DeepCent (China)" is used as the backbone to depict the path of explosive changes of AI agents from 2025 to 2027, and even the pessimistic ending mentions the possible extinction of human beings in 2030. The authors emphasize that the marginal effects of AI (the state of progress) will, in turn, accelerate the next round of AI research from the first generation of