• 2025Technology/Semiconductor Executive Summary

The year 2024 is coming to an end, and we are about to welcome the arrival of 2025. Ji-Pu observes that next year's global economy should be in the second half of the growth period; although the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRC) released hawkish talks immediately after cutting interest rates by a single digit in December, we estimate that next year's U.S. economy will not be overheated to the extent that inflation will get out of control and return to the cycle of interest rate hikes; we can't rule out the possibility that supply will decrease due to the policies in the next one to two years, accelerating the upward movement of salaries and wages. The labor market can not be ruled out in the next one to two years due to policy-induced supply reduction, accelerating wages upward. The Trump team is expected to return to power in January 2025. At present, the main policy objectives are to implement tax cuts for corporations and lower interest rates for loans to promote growth; and to increase tariffs to make up for the loss of tax revenues and to encourage foreign companies to invest more in the U.S. and to increase production. With the announcement of Trump's cabinet (the Secretary of the Treasury is relatively centrist), the downward trend of short-term risk assets, and the strength of the U.S. dollar, we take the U.S. economy as the background assumption for our 2025 trend forecast, which is a blonde-girl economy with capital moving to the market and the consumer side, but with slowing year-on-year growth.

Over the past two years, the far-reaching impact of AI artificial intelligence on technology trends cannot be ignored. We predict that 2025 will be the year