June_Half-Year Industry Review｜Analyzing the Global Technology Supply Chain, 2024 will be the Year of Industry Growth: Foundry and TSMC

Published On: 2023/06/04|Categories: 科技(Technology)|

In 2023, the global foundry industry will face the slowest quarterly growth since Q4 2022. According to market researcher Omdia, as shown in Figure 1, the quarterly growth of the foundry industry in Q1 2023 is expected to be the slowest since Q4 2022. Due to the inventory adjustment, the quarterly growth rate of the foundry industry in Q1 2023 is -13.4%, and roughly speaking, except for special products such as X-Fab from Horse and Hua Hong Semiconductor from China, the quarterly growth rate of the rest of the companies is in a recessionary situation. After the epidemic, the pure foundry industry's revenue continues to slow down and is expected to show single-digit negative growth in Q2 2023 as well. Due to the slowdown in demand for consumer electronics, PC/NB, and many other applications, foundry capacity utilization continued to decline in Q1 2023 and is expected to bottom out in Q2. In the next 1~3 years, foundries in the market will focus on technology differentiation to avoid the high cost of advanced technology development dragging down the overall profitability. The mature process and advanced process will have very different growth scenarios. In the mature process, due to customer product configuration and similar process nodes of the foundry's cost reduction pressure, the impact of weak demand for consumer electronics, etc., it is expected that there will be a double-digit negative revenue growth close to 20% in 2023; in the advanced process, with TSMC 3nm technology in early 2023 to enter mass production, the world's advanced technology will be able to achieve the same level of growth. In terms of advanced manufacturing processes, with TSMC's 3nm technology entering mass production in early 2023, the world's advanced technology will continue to flourish, and revenue growth is expected to be 4~6% in 2023. As TSMC's overall operating costs rise, we cannot rule out seeing price increases in 2024 as demand for advanced processes continues to grow.

Chart 1 Foundry Quarterly Revenue and Growth Rate

Source: Omdia

台積電為全球晶圓代工龍頭，其營收表現乃至於各項策略如資本支出、擴廠計畫等，無不都在牽動全球半導體的後續發展，也因此市場多半將台積電的營收與未來展望視為重要的風向球。依據台積電第一季財報數據顯示，7奈米製程佔全季晶圓銷售金額的20%，先進製程（含7奈米及其更先進製程）達全季晶圓營收的51%。以新台幣計算，相較於2022年同期，年成長為3.6%。不過，由於台積電已經公布財報，2023年全年度營收在以美元計算下，預計將下滑1~6%，長期來看，毛利率維持在53%的目標，第二季營收也預計也會有年衰退的表現。由此來看，台積電在第三季乃至於都有可能繳出年衰退的成績單，但應都是微幅衰退。

圖二台積電營收年成長率與毛利率變化

Source：台積電；智璞產業趨勢研究所整理

而在營收與庫存金額的表現上，台積電在2022年第一季正式突破2,000億新台幣大關，直到第四季達到史上最高的2,211億，但同一時間，其營收同樣也達到歷史新高。在2022年下半年，隨著系統業者不斷向半導體業者拉貨，產業對於市場的需求急速反轉的疑慮一直未解，庫存等相關數據的議題，都是產業界所關心之議題。進入至2023年Q1後，其營收對比去年同期略有成長，對比前一季則有明顯衰退，顯見終端市場需求不振，的確也開始影響了台積電的營收表現，而庫存金額上也開始有所下滑，降至2160億新台幣，由此可見，台積電也已經啟動庫存調整機制。據台積電官方說法，預計Q3可以將庫存完全去化。

圖三台積電在營收與庫存金額的變化（單位：百萬新台幣）